Ph.D Defence of Maroof Shah

Mr. Maroof Shah, Ph.D. Research Scholar has submitted thesis on "Comparative Analysis of Multiple Drought Indices in Khyber Valley, Pakistan" to the University of Peshawar, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in Disaster Management

The oral examination (Public Defence) is scheduled to be held on July 21st, 2026 at 10.00 a.m. in the Centre for Disaster Preparedness & Management, University of Peshawar. The abstract of the thesis is attached herewith.

All those interested in the said research work may participate in the event. They may raise relevant questions during presentation by the scholar for further evaluation.

ABSTRACT

Research Title "Comparative analysis of Multiple Drought Indices in Khyber valley, Pakistan"

Drought is one of the most persistent hydro-climatic hazards, posing profound threats to agriculture, water resources, and rural livelihoods in Pakistan, particularly in the Khyber Valley. The fragile agro-ecological systems in the study area are highly sensitive to climatic variability. Drought indices are widely used to quantify, monitor, and characterize drought conditions across different temporal and spatial scales. However, the lack of a single, universally reliable drought index, and the diverse local impacts of drought, necessitates a multi-index approach capable of capturing the complexity of drought conditions across different temporal and ecological settings. This study employs five widely used drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Effective Reconnaissance Drought Index (eRDI), and Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). These indices, together with Indigenous Knowledge (IK), were applied across multiple time scales (3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month return periods) to evaluate the dynamics of drought in the Khyber Valley. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining NASA MERRA-2 precipitation and temperature data (1982–2022) with semi-structured interviews of local stakeholders.Descriptive statistical analysis revealed that SPI and RDI produced balanced but moderate variability, whereas, aSPI and eRDI effectively captured agricultural and evapotranspiration-driven drought stress. By contrast, RAI showed higher dispersion with extreme values, reflecting its limited sensitivity in longer timescales. Correlation analysis revealed strong inter-index consistency, particularly between SPI and aSPI (r = 0.92 - 1.00) and between RDI and eRDI (r = 0.92 - 1.00), while RAI and IK showed weaker associations (r 0.15-0.35), reflecting their sensitivity to local environmental variability. Two-way ANOVA results indicated no statistically significant differences across indices and timescales (F = 0.27-0.77, p > 0.05), highlighting their mutual reinforcement rather than fundamental differences. Findings of the study highlighted that aSPI and eRDI, when integrated with IK insights, provide the most reliable and context- appropriate framework for drought monitoring in the study area, as they capture both the agricultural and climatic dimensions of water stress while aligning with community-level observations. By embedding this dual-index approach within broader governance and adaptation frameworks, the findings suggest that national and provincial drought management systems can enhance their adaptive water management strategies and strengthen resilience in fragile mountain agro-ecosystems. More broadly, the integration of statistical rigor with Indigenous Knowledge (IK) advances a context-sensitive drought monitoring framework that not only safeguards rural livelihoods but also reinforces Pakistan's role in international climate resilience efforts.